mike watkins dot ca : February 18 2005 Archives

February 18 2005

Global Warming

New proof that man has caused global warming (London Times):

“The debate about whether there is a global warming signal now is over, at least for rational people,” said Tim Barnett, of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California. “The models got it right. If a politician stands up and says the uncertainty is too great to believe these models, that is no longer tenable.”

Its no secret that I am an environmentalist. I’m also a registered Conservative Partyof Canada member, hailing from the former Progressive Conservative Party of Canada where I was an active activist.

Conservatism and Environmentalism do not seem like compatible bedfellows – on comparing the attitudes of typcial Conservative politicians, one could be forgiven for coming to that conclusion.

Yet environmental conservatism is indeed a compatible point of view. A “common sense” conservative can’t help but look at the many ways we’ve “progressed” over the years and conclude that man is having a dramatic impact on the Earth – a closed system if ever there was one.

Conservative minded press is not amused nor onside. The National Post calls the ideas of renowned enviro-scientist Dr. David Suzuki four wheel drivel.

Sport-utility vehicles have not merely come to account for an increasing proportion of North American sales; their manufacture—in particular for the export market to the United States—has become increasingly important for the Canadian auto industry.

SUVs inevitably consume more gasoline than smaller, lighter vehicles. The greater expense is willingly paid by their owners in return for a perceived increase in safety, security, status or whatever other factors determine their consumption choices.

You’d think the Post could come to the smart conclusion given they at least understand the basic issue is “more consumption”.

You can’t have “more consumption” work from a financial perspective without either asset inflation, or increased market penetration. Product companies in a saturated market like automobiles simply can’t get the returns they want by making smaller cheaper cars. When the entire market place already has a vehicle, a smaller, cheaper, more reliable car is the sure way to the death of an automaker, or so they believe and act.

Indeed, the SUV and Mini Van became the biggest boom to auto makers only because bigger and more costly were marketable in a period of relative wealth (among consumers) and these products saved domestic makers, at least for a period of time.

Yet the Post misses all this, mixing up and glossing over concepts like airborne pollutants and greenhouse gasses (the two are related but not identical), and in an ironic twist states the obvious to some how defend their position. Reverse psychology at its finest:

For the David Suzukis of the world, however, consumers are manipulable morons who have been led into driving SUVs like so many zombies, merely to fatten automakers’ profits.

Perversly they continue to quote Suzuki, who gets it right:

“This is an industry that knows how to exploit image and status,” writes Mr. Suzuki. “It has the power, and the ad budget, to make fuel-efficient cars profitable and cool.”

The National Post spews a lot of drivel, dangerous drivel in my opinion. Hopefully a solid scientific basis for global warming concerns will quickly either a) be fully and irrefutably be debunked, or b) irrefutably confirmed, which my gut and common sense, along with available evidence, suggests will happen.

Fossil fuel consumption is bound to become the number one threat to world stability over the coming decades, either because of scarcity of supply and geopolitical issues due to this, or because rapid growth – with the potential to far exceed the developed world in time – in the under-developed areas of the world further accelerate global warming trends.